Rolex Shanghai Masters · R16 · Hard · Bo3 · STADIUM COURT
Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Rafael Jodar [12]
Oct 14, 00:00 EDT · Oct 14, 12:00 GMT+8 local
Court speed 32.8 (medium-slow, published CPI) · published 32.8, proxy 39.7 · Early reads: about medium (35-39); using 2025 value (no 2026 value yet)
PASSRafael JodarLenses conflict
Market vs model
→ Rafael JodarZandschulpJodar
Model32.9%67.1%
Fair odds3.041.49
Elo only33.6%66.4%
Serve/return28.8%71.2%
Odds (betmgm)2.541.50
No-vig implied37.1%62.9%
Edge-4.2+4.2
Recent form
→ Botic Van De ZandschulpZandschulpJodar
Last 54-13-2
Last 107-36-4
Games won49.7%48.7%
Points won49.1%47.9%
Beat higher Elo4/60/0
StreakW3W2
Elo (surface)20422090
Event & similar speed
→ Rafael Jodar (low conf.)Botic Van De Zandschulp
2025 R128 (CPI 33) · 2024 R64 (CPI 41, different) · 2023 R64 (CPI 40, different)
Similar speed: 13-9, DR 1.07 (20 w/ stats)
Rafael Jodar
No recent results here
Similar speed: 6-1, DR 1.12 (5 w/ stats)
Log a pick for this match
- Rafael Jodar is rated higher on hard (surface-blended Elo 2188 vs 2070)
- Rafael Jodar is 6-1 at similar-speed hard events over 24 months (vs 13-9)
- Rafael Jodar has the better 52-week dominance ratio (1.16 vs 1.03)
Main risk: Botic Van De Zandschulp is in better recent form (last 10: 7-3, 49.1% points won vs 6-4, 47.9% points won).
Prop projections from the model
Total games · mean 24.4 · fair 23.5
o21.5 62%o22.5 55%o23.5 50%o24.5 48%o25.5 44%
Zandschulp game handicap · fair +2.5
+0.5 35%+1.5 39%+2.5 46%+3.5 55%+4.5 67%
Set score (Zandschulp first)
2-1 18%2-0 15%1-2 29%0-2 38%
Tiebreak in match 35% · Zandschulp wins set 1 38%
Aces
Zandschulp exp 4.1:o2.5 74%o3.5 56%o4.5 38%o5.5 24%
Jodar exp 4.0:o2.5 73%o3.5 54%o4.5 37%o5.5 23%
Serve and return statistics
ZandschulpJodar
Last 10 matches
Serve pts won60.9%58.3%
Return pts won37.5%37.3%
Hold76%71%
Break19%23%
Ace7.6%4.9%
Double fault5.5%3.8%
1st in62%63%
1st won71%66%
2nd won45%45%
Dominance0.960.89
Matches87
Last 52 weeks (stats through 2026-10-03 / 2026-09-28)
Serve pts won63.8%64.5%
Recent matches, schedule and luck
Botic Van De Zandschulp
| Date | Event | Rd | Opponent | Elo | Score | SPW/RPW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 | Rolex Shanghai Masters H | R32 | W Arthur Fils | 2307 | 7-5 6-4 | no stats |
| 10-05 | Rolex Shanghai Masters H | R64 | W Alex Michelsen | 2125 | 6-4 6-4 | no stats |
| 10-03 | Rolex Shanghai Masters H | R128 | W Daniel Merida Aguilar #42 | 2101 | 1-6 6-3 6-4 | 58%/41% |
| 09-28 | China Open H | R32 | L Francisco Cerundolo #22 | 2133 | 5-7 6-4 6-3 | 61%/37% |
| 09-27 | China Open H | Q2 |
• Court speed source: user seed (unverified).
• Match dates in history are estimated from the round (the archive only has tournament start dates).
Model v2.0 · computed 10/13/2026, 1:01:21 PM ET