Rolex Shanghai Masters · R16 · Hard · Bo3 · STADIUM COURT
Casper Ruud [20] vs Felix Auger Aliassime [4]
Oct 14, 01:45 EDT · Oct 14, 13:45 GMT+8 local (estimated)
Court speed 32.8 (medium-slow, published CPI) · published 32.8, proxy 39.7 · Early reads: about medium (35-39); using 2025 value (no 2026 value yet)
LEANCasper RuudTwo lenses agree
Market vs model
→ Casper RuudRuudAliassime
Model47.1%52.9%
Fair odds2.121.89
Elo only47.4%52.6%
Serve/return45.4%54.6%
Odds (betmgm)2.151.67
No-vig implied43.7%56.3%
Edge+3.3-3.3
Recent form
→ neutralRuudAliassime
Last 53-23-2
Last 105-56-4
Games won51.4%51.4%
Points won49.5%50.0%
Beat higher Elo0/00/1
StreakW2W2
Elo (surface)20652132
Event & similar speed
→ Casper Ruud (low conf.)Casper Ruud
2025 R64 (CPI 33) · 2024 R64 (CPI 41, different) · 2023 R16 (CPI 40, different)
Similar speed: 8-3, DR 1.29 (9 w/ stats)
Felix Auger Aliassime
2025 QF (CPI 33) · 2024 R64 (CPI 41, different) · 2023 R64 (CPI 40, different)
Similar speed: 18-6, DR 1.16 (22 w/ stats)
Log a pick for this match
- Against: Felix Auger Aliassime has gone deep here before (2025: QF, 2024: R64, 2023: R64)
- Against: Felix Auger Aliassime is rated higher on hard (surface-blended Elo 2177 vs 2159)
- Against: Felix Auger Aliassime has the better 52-week dominance ratio (1.15 vs 1.11)
Main risk: Felix Auger Aliassime has gone deep here before (2025: QF, 2024: R64, 2023: R64).
Prop projections from the model
Total games · mean 26.2 · fair 25.5
o23.5 57%o24.5 56%o25.5 52%o26.5 46%o27.5 43%
Ruud game handicap · fair +0.5
-1.5 39%-0.5 44%+0.5 50%+1.5 55%+2.5 63%
Set score (Ruud first)
2-1 24%2-0 23%1-2 26%0-2 27%
Tiebreak in match 54% · Ruud wins set 1 48%
Aces
Ruud exp 4.2:o2.5 76%o3.5 59%o4.5 41%o5.5 27%
Aliassime exp 10.4:o8.5 65%o9.5 55%o10.5 45%o11.5 36%
Serve and return statistics
RuudAliassime
Last 10 matches
Serve pts won64.5%65.6%
Return pts won34.5%33.7%
Hold83%83%
Break18%17%
Ace6.7%14.2%
Double fault5.1%5.1%
1st in64%63%
1st won72%77%
2nd won51%45%
Dominance0.970.98
Matches88
Last 52 weeks (stats through 2026-09-28 / 2026-09-28)
Serve pts won66.8%69.7%
Recent matches, schedule and luck
Casper Ruud
| Date | Event | Rd | Opponent | Elo | Score | SPW/RPW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 | Rolex Shanghai Masters H | R32 | W Learner Tien | 2174 | 6-4 7-6(3) | no stats |
| 10-05 | Rolex Shanghai Masters H | R64 | W Bu Yunchaokete | 2003 | 6-1 7-6(2) | no stats |
| 09-28 | Japan Open Tennis Championships H | R32 | L Luciano Darderi #19 | 2072 | 7-6(3) 6-3 | 55%/29% |
| 09-25 | Laver Cup - London H | RR | W Francisco Cerundolo #22 | 2141 | 6-7(4) 6-4 10-8 | 68%/31% |
| 08-10 | Cincinnati Open H | R64 |
• Court speed source: user seed (unverified).
• Match dates in history are estimated from the round (the archive only has tournament start dates).
Model v2.0 · computed 10/18/2026, 11:50:44 PM ET