Rolex Shanghai Masters · R16 · Hard · Bo3 · STADIUM COURT
Daniil Medvedev [5] vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Oct 14, 06:00 EDT · Oct 14, 18:00 GMT+8 local
Court speed 32.8 (medium-slow, published CPI) · published 32.8, proxy 39.7 · Early reads: about medium (35-39); using 2025 value (no 2026 value yet)
PASSStefanos TsitsipasLenses conflict
Market vs model
→ neutralMedvedevTsitsipas
Model65.1%34.9%
Fair odds1.542.87
Elo only64.9%35.1%
Serve/return66.4%33.6%
Odds (betmgm)1.442.75
No-vig implied65.6%34.4%
Edge-0.5+0.5
Recent form
→ Daniil MedvedevMedvedevTsitsipas
Last 54-14-1
Last 109-18-2
Games won58.6%55.2%
Points won53.4%52.8%
Beat higher Elo0/12/3
StreakW2W3
Elo (surface)22122074
Event & similar speed
→ Daniil MedvedevDaniil Medvedev
2025 SF (CPI 33) · 2024 QF (CPI 41, different) · 2023 R32 (CPI 40, different)
Similar speed: 18-9, DR 1.21 (25 w/ stats)
Stefanos Tsitsipas
2024 R16 (CPI 41, different) · 2023 R32 (CPI 40, different)
Similar speed: 14-4, DR 1.14 (16 w/ stats)
Log a pick for this match
- Stefanos Tsitsipas is 14-4 at similar-speed hard events over 24 months (vs 18-9)
- Against: Daniil Medvedev is rated higher on hard (surface-blended Elo 2228 vs 2121)
- Against: Daniil Medvedev has gone deep here before (2025: SF, 2024: QF, 2023: R32)
Main risk: Daniil Medvedev is rated higher on hard (surface-blended Elo 2228 vs 2121).
Prop projections from the model
Total games · mean 25.3 · fair 24.5
o22.5 59%o23.5 53%o24.5 51%o25.5 48%o26.5 43%
Medvedev game handicap · fair -2.5
-4.5 26%-3.5 39%-2.5 50%-1.5 58%-0.5 63%
Set score (Medvedev first)
2-1 29%2-0 36%1-2 19%0-2 16%
Tiebreak in match 45% · Medvedev wins set 1 60%
Aces
Medvedev exp 5.8:o4.5 65%o5.5 50%o6.5 37%o7.5 25%
Tsitsipas exp 3.6:o2.5 66%o3.5 47%o4.5 30%o5.5 17%
Serve and return statistics
MedvedevTsitsipas
Last 10 matches
Serve pts won69.1%71.6%
Return pts won39.1%35.0%
Hold92%88%
Break22%21%
Ace18.6%10.5%
Double fault3.9%1.9%
1st in65%61%
1st won79%77%
2nd won50%64%
Dominance1.271.23
Matches88
Last 52 weeks (stats through 2026-10-03 / 2026-10-03)
Serve pts won65.7%68.4%
Recent matches, schedule and luck
Daniil Medvedev
| Date | Event | Rd | Opponent | Elo | Score | SPW/RPW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 | Rolex Shanghai Masters H | R32 | W Dalibor Svrcina | 1942 | 6-2 6-3 | no stats |
| 10-05 | Rolex Shanghai Masters H | R64 | W Jan Lennard Struff | 1988 | 4-6 6-4 6-3 | no stats |
| 10-03 | China Open H | SF | L Novak Djokovic #11 | 2424 | 7-5 5-3 | 52%/41% |
| 10-01 | China Open H | QF | W Francisco Cerundolo #22 | 2147 | 7-6(4) 6-3 | 76%/41% |
| 09-30 | China Open H | R16 | Jan Lennard Struff |
• Court speed source: user seed (unverified).
• Match dates in history are estimated from the round (the archive only has tournament start dates).
Model v2.0 · computed 10/19/2026, 11:21:44 AM ET