Rolex Shanghai Masters · R16 · Hard · Bo3 · STADIUM COURT
Tommy Paul [15] vs Zizou Bergs
Oct 14, 07:45 EDT · Oct 14, 19:45 GMT+8 local (estimated)
Court speed 32.8 (medium-slow, published CPI) · published 32.8, proxy 39.7 · Early reads: about medium (35-39); using 2025 value (no 2026 value yet)
PASSTommy PaulNot enough agreement
Market vs model
→ Tommy PaulPaulBergs
Model69.9%30.1%
Fair odds1.433.33
Elo only71.0%29.0%
Serve/return63.8%36.2%
Odds (betmgm)1.452.70
No-vig implied65.1%34.9%
Edge+4.9-4.9
Recent form
→ neutralPaulBergs
Last 53-23-2
Last 107-36-4
Games won54.0%53.9%
Points won50.7%51.5%
Beat higher Elo1/22/4
StreakW2W3
Elo (surface)21201965
Event & similar speed
→ neutral (low conf.)Tommy Paul
2024 R16 (CPI 41, different) · 2023 R16 (CPI 40, different)
Similar speed: 4-1, DR 1.07 (3 w/ stats)
Zizou Bergs
2025 QF (CPI 33) · 2024 R64 (CPI 41, different)
Similar speed: 17-7, DR 1.09 (23 w/ stats)
Log a pick for this match
- Tommy Paul is rated higher on hard (surface-blended Elo 2188 vs 2032)
- Tommy Paul has the better 52-week dominance ratio (1.14 vs 1.05)
- Tommy Paul is 4-1 at similar-speed hard events over 24 months (vs 17-7)
Main risk: Zizou Bergs has gone deep here before (2025: QF, 2024: R64).
Prop projections from the model
Total games · mean 24.8 · fair 23.5
o21.5 64%o22.5 56%o23.5 50%o24.5 49%o25.5 45%
Paul game handicap · fair -3.5
-5.5 19%-4.5 32%-3.5 45%-2.5 56%-1.5 63%
Set score (Paul first)
2-1 29%2-0 40%1-2 17%0-2 13%
Tiebreak in match 40% · Paul wins set 1 64%
Aces
Paul exp 4.2:o2.5 76%o3.5 58%o4.5 41%o5.5 26%
Bergs exp 5.4:o3.5 74%o4.5 59%o5.5 44%o6.5 31%
Serve and return statistics
PaulBergs
Last 10 matches
Serve pts won65.7%63.7%
Return pts won36.7%40.0%
Hold82%80%
Break22%25%
Ace8.7%7.8%
Double fault2.7%5.8%
1st in60%56%
1st won74%76%
2nd won54%48%
Dominance1.071.10
Matches87
Last 52 weeks (stats through 2026-09-28 / 2026-10-07)
Serve pts won66.7%64.3%
Recent matches, schedule and luck
Tommy Paul
| Date | Event | Rd | Opponent | Elo | Score | SPW/RPW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 | Rolex Shanghai Masters H | R32 | W Valentin Vacherot | 2117 | 6-4 6-2 | no stats |
| 10-05 | Rolex Shanghai Masters H | R64 | W Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 2016 | 6-2 6-2 | no stats |
| 09-28 | Japan Open Tennis Championships H | R32 | L Alejandro Tabilo #31 | 2050 | 6-1 6-2 | 43%/30% |
| 09-07 | US Open H | R16 | L Carlos Alcaraz #3 | 2549 | 6-4 6-3 6-4 | 56%/29% |
| 09-04 | US Open H | R32 |
• Court speed source: user seed (unverified).
• Match dates in history are estimated from the round (the archive only has tournament start dates).
Model v2.0 · computed 10/18/2026, 10:38:13 PM ET