Rolex Shanghai Masters · · Hard · Bo3 · TBD
Alexander Zverev vs Alex De Minaur
· local
Court speed 32.8 (medium-slow, published CPI) · published 32.8, proxy 39.7 · Early reads: about medium (35-39); using 2025 value (no 2026 value yet)
PASSAlexander ZverevLenses conflict
Market vs model
→ neutralZverevMinaur
Model65.6%34.4%
Fair odds1.522.91
Elo only65.6%34.4%
Serve/return65.8%34.2%
Odds (betmgm)1.452.70
No-vig implied65.1%34.9%
Edge+0.6-0.6
Recent form
→ Alexander ZverevZverevMinaur
Last 53-24-1
Last 108-27-3
Games won59.4%51.8%
Points won54.4%51.0%
Beat higher Elo0/11/3
StreakL1L1
Elo (surface)22772197
Event & similar speed
→ Alex De MinaurAlexander Zverev
2025 R32 (CPI 33) · 2024 R16 (CPI 41, different) · 2023 R64 (CPI 40, different)
Similar speed: 9-6, DR 1.01 (15 w/ stats)
Alex De Minaur
2025 QF (CPI 33) · 2023 R64 (CPI 40, different)
Similar speed: 22-7, DR 1.25 (29 w/ stats)
Log a pick for this match
- Alexander Zverev is rated higher on hard (surface-blended Elo 2339 vs 2227)
- Alex De Minaur retired from a match recently (China Open 2026-10-04)
- Alexander Zverev is in better recent form (last 10: 8-2, 54.4% points won vs 7-3, 51.0% points won)
- Alexander Zverev has the better 52-week dominance ratio (1.24 vs 1.10)
Main risk: Alex De Minaur is 22-7 at similar-speed hard events over 24 months (vs 9-6).
Prop projections from the model
Total games · mean 25.3 · fair 24.5
o22.5 59%o23.5 53%o24.5 51%o25.5 48%o26.5 43%
Zverev game handicap · fair -2.5
-4.5 26%-3.5 39%-2.5 51%-1.5 58%-0.5 64%
Set score (Zverev first)
2-1 29%2-0 37%1-2 19%0-2 16%
Tiebreak in match 46% · Zverev wins set 1 61%
Aces
Zverev exp 6.8:o5.5 63%o6.5 50%o7.5 37%o8.5 27%
Minaur exp 3.7:o2.5 68%o3.5 48%o4.5 31%o5.5 18%
Serve and return statistics
ZverevMinaur
Last 10 matches
Serve pts won71.6%64.5%
Return pts won37.6%37.9%
Hold94%80%
Break25%22%
Ace13.1%6.4%
Double fault4.0%3.3%
1st in71%58%
1st won79%69%
2nd won55%58%
Dominance1.331.07
Matches1010
Last 52 weeks (stats through 2026-10-01 / 2026-10-04)
Serve pts won70.9%64.1%
Recent matches, schedule and luck
Alexander Zverev
| Date | Event | Rd | Opponent | Elo | Score | SPW/RPW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 | China Open H | QF | L Novak Djokovic #11 | 2419 | 4-6 6-4 6-4 | 68%/27% |
| 09-30 | China Open H | R16 | W Juncheng Shang #250 | 1968 | 6-0 6-3 | 86%/53% |
| 09-28 | China Open H | R32 | W Cameron Norrie #40 | 2083 | 7-6(1) 6-4 | 76%/36% |
| 09-27 | Laver Cup - London H | RR | W Learner Tien #13 | 2190 | 7-6(3) 6-3 | 73%/36% |
| 09-26 | Laver Cup - London H | RR | Alex De Minaur |
• Court speed source: user seed (unverified).
• Match dates in history are estimated from the round (the archive only has tournament start dates).
Model v2.0 · computed 10/13/2026, 11:16:01 PM ET